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New study on dog capacity crises in shelters
Plus Dogs and Data 2026 and new AI learning opportunities
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More intakes than outcomes create capacity crises, but adoptions get us out of them.
A new study by Michael Mavrovouniotis and me looks at three years of national data from Shelter Animals Count, covering 1,600 US shelters. We found that overcrowding is a temporary problem that shelters resolve over months, primarily by increasing adoptions, not by reducing intake.
We know the number of dogs in an animal shelter’s care rises whenever more dogs enter during a given period than leave. We asked two questions: What drives the month-to-month swings in census and how does a shelter return to a normal state once a build-up has happened?
Reviewing three years of data from Shelter Animals Count (2022 to 2024), we found that an increase in intakes is the strongest driver on the shelter census increasing, though slower outcomes have some impact.
However, once the increased kennel census has happened, which shelters sometimes call reaching a ‘capacity crisis,’ adoptions are the most significant factor in driving the census back down. Returning to a normal capacity doesn’t happen overnight, and it takes organizations an average of 5 to 8 months to return to normal, depending on whether they’re a government or non-government shelter. In government shelters, euthanasia rises by about 4% when they’re full, but for non-government shelters, it remains the same.
For animal shelters, the findings have implications for operational and budgetary decision-making. First, increasing adoption efforts, including staffing and marketing, is the most effective way to resolve a space crisis. Second, shelters need to budget about six months of additional adoption resources when working to resolve a space crisis. It takes time, but it’s possible. Third, shelters should monitor census trends carefully. A rising census (more dogs entering than leaving) indicates you should invest relatively more in adoptions now to prevent a space crisis later.
Webinar: How to use AI right now
Join me on September 9 at 2 PM EST / 11 AM PST. AI can help you save time, streamline operations, reduce burnout, and improve outcomes. Because AI capabilities have improved so dramatically over the past six months, many organizations are not maximizing AI's impact to create positive change.
- Introduction to agents and coding
- Which tools to use for various tasks
- Organizing your work with projects
- Integrating AI with your shelter software
- Risk mitigation and AI use policies
This session includes real-life examples of how organizations are using AI, and we'll save time at the end for questions.
Dogs and Data is Back!
I'm joining Pedigree Foundation, Shelter Animals Count, and Adopt-a-Pet for year three of the webinar series focused on our biggest industry challenge. We're covering brand new topics including:
- What everyone on your team needs to know about shelter data
- The latest learnings on dog length of stay
- How to use AI and technology to make your data actionable
The first session is September 15 and other sessions are held in October and November.
AI for Animal Welfare Professionals five-week class
Sign up now to join the ninth cohort of the class that has an average rating of 4.98 out of 5 stars. This five-week course invites students into the world of AI, offering the latest best practices on how to strategically and safely integrate AI into your organization. This is the last session of 2026 and we have just 10 spots left. There is a fee for this course but a limited number of scholarships are available thanks to our sponsor, ShelterLuv! You can read some of our student testimonials here.
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